General Session

Thursday, August 2, 2018


Enter the lab of our mysterious data scientist conjuring formulas while slicing and dicing numbers at will. Thanks to our generous client victims – sorry – volunteers, who have kindly shared their internal data so we can experiment on it together and witness the enlightening results.

Notes from session:

Share and performance determine vote share.

  • Ask these five questions
    1. Who are my targets?
    2. What am I going to say to them?
    3. How am I going to reach them?
    4. What’s the other side doing?
    5. How are we doing?
  • Votes generated = eligible voters x turnout x performance in specific districts
  • Analyzing elections is about understanding the “letters”
  • Accurate polling is about getting the “letters” right
  • Winning elections is about influencing the “letters”

Secretary of State voter files.

  • Each state maintains a list of all voters.
  • This is a publicly available document, however, access and cost vary dramatically state-to-state and county-by-county.
  • Use is typically restricted to those engaged in political activities and research.
  • SoS voter files do very little remove those that have moved or died.
  • SoS files include extremely limited field sets – name, address, vote history etc…
  • Voter file-based data can and should be used by advocacy organizations.

Alternate voter files.

  • L2 is one of several commercial voter file providers that maintain a nationwide voter file.
  • L2’s file is made up of over 180 Million registered voters in the United States, collected from state and county boards of election.
  • Those data are run through significant hygiene processes and appended to consumer and contact files.