Thursday, August 2, 2018
Enter the lab of our mysterious data scientist conjuring formulas while slicing and dicing numbers at will. Thanks to our generous client victims – sorry – volunteers, who have kindly shared their internal data so we can experiment on it together and witness the enlightening results.
Notes from session:
Share and performance determine vote share.
- Ask these five questions
- Who are my targets?
- What am I going to say to them?
- How am I going to reach them?
- What’s the other side doing?
- How are we doing?
- Votes generated = eligible voters x turnout x performance in specific districts
- Analyzing elections is about understanding the “letters”
- Accurate polling is about getting the “letters” right
- Winning elections is about influencing the “letters”
Secretary of State voter files.
- Each state maintains a list of all voters.
- This is a publicly available document, however, access and cost vary dramatically state-to-state and county-by-county.
- Use is typically restricted to those engaged in political activities and research.
- SoS voter files do very little remove those that have moved or died.
- SoS files include extremely limited field sets – name, address, vote history etc…
- Voter file-based data can and should be used by advocacy organizations.
Alternate voter files.
- L2 is one of several commercial voter file providers that maintain a nationwide voter file.
- L2’s file is made up of over 180 Million registered voters in the United States, collected from state and county boards of election.
- Those data are run through significant hygiene processes and appended to consumer and contact files.